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Motorola Does Not Need Another Hit Phone

By James Quintana Pearce - Thu 24 Jan 2008 06:22 AM PST

I feel a little rant coming on… the New York Times is reporting on Motorola’s (NYSE: MOT) fairly dismal earnings results (our coverage here) and apparently has learnt nothing from the history of the mobile industry. The article begins: “In Hollywood, it does not take long for the pundits to start grumbling when a studio has a string of flops. Nowadays, things are no different for the cellphone business, which, like the film industry, is a hit-driven pursuit.” It was exactly this thinking that got Motorola into trouble in the first place, because the mobile handset business is not hit-driven. Motorola had a mega-hit with the Razr but that was a one-off aberration, like the Crazy Frog. It made a lot of money for a brief period of time but you cannot build a business model off it—in fact, the mobile handset business is a lot like the ringtone business because it’s personal: Everyone wants something different and the secret to success is to offer as many different flavors as you can. Nokia (NYSE: NOK) had sold about 4 million of its “hit” phone, the N95, by the end of the third quarter last year, so you can add a couple of million to that to the end of 2007 if you want to...but compare that to the 437 million handsets Nokia sold in 2007, or even to the 60.5 million “converged devices” it sold in 2007, or even to the 38 million Nseries handsets. You can do the same with LG (SEO: 066570) and Sony (NYSE: SNE) Ericsson (NSDQ: ERIC) and get the same results—they are driven by a wide variety of handsets, not by hits. Luckily for Motorola shareholders CEO Greg Brown seems to understand this…

Posted in: Companies, Motorola, Nokia, Gadgets

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5 Responses:
  • From Michael Molin Thu 24 Jan 2008 06:01 PM

    >the mobile handset business is not hit-driven

    False, James. Nokia N95 - has RAZR form factor, the latest Samsung F490 is the same 53 mm wide. It’s the optimal ergonomics for one-hand operations and maximum screen area together - the Golden Section for the industry.

    These two phones are the reality of the Cell PC (53x103 mm) - the Samsung’s display is the main display, the Nokia’s display is the second display. It’s a ubiquitous form factor.

  • From Steve Fri 25 Jan 2008 07:18 AM

    There’s a distinct lack of iPhone reference there… hasn’t it kinda shaken up the accepted business model a little?

  • From Kip Hartman Fri 25 Jan 2008 08:01 AM

    Sprint is a good example of what happens when you don’t have a “hit phone” to make availabe.  They passed on the RAZR when it first came out and only picked it up about two years after the excitement had died down.  Their next move was to drop out of the competition for the iPhone, saying that they had comparable phones.  Really?  We’re still waiting, even as Verizon introduces the Voyager with the touch screen and the full keypad and the...well, everything else Sprint subscribers wish they had.

    Motorola is the winner of the 1st Annual Wave Award for Favorite Handset Manufacturer, as voted by the public.  Even without a big hit on their hands and stiff competition from Nokia and others, the public selected Motorola.  Check all of the results at http://www.TheWaveAwards.com.

  • From mocorocker Fri 25 Jan 2008 08:31 AM

    Totally agree with Kip Hartman. Besides all the merger issues that have been covered and debated ad nauseam, Spint’s handset group bears much blame for the carrier’s dismal performance.

    Even Alltel got a Razr before they did! Simply embarrassing. I wonder how the people in charge of handsets are still there.  Long live Sprint bureaucracy.

    MR

  • From James Quintana Pearce Fri 25 Jan 2008 04:47 PM

    Michael Molin: I’m not sure what your point is. Yes, a lot of phones have a similar form factor, but “a lot” of phones have the form factor but other differences, is my point.

    IPhone: The iPhone hasn’t shaken up the business model—although Apple’s success at getting revenue share from carriers will definitely shake up the business model IF other manufacturers succeed in signing different deals. The iPhone is a “hit phone” for Apple because it’s a new entrant, and it would be a good business for any manufacturer, but it wouldn’t revive Apple’s fortunes. Even if you assumed Apple had sold its goal of 10 million iPhone, that’s less than 0.9 percent of the global marketplace for handsets (where Motorola competes). In the first quarter of last year Motorola had a marketshare of 18.5 percent, in the fourth quarter it had dropped to 12.4 percent. An iPhone-level hit would not have made that much of a difference to its fortunes. So irrespective of awards, sales figures show that the public is voting for other handset manufacturers over Motorola in the only vote that counts.

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